Mixed signals ahead of crucial update
Kingfisher enters the next trading update, pencilled in for Tuesday 23rd of September, under a cloud of cautious optimism, as past results have revealed both strengths and substantial headwinds that investors will be keen to see addressed. The UK home improvement retailer has already shown some resilience in its most recent full-year results, but the degree to which that resilience will carry forward into next week’s update is uncertain.
In its most recent fiscal year to January 2025, Kingfisher reported a 7% fall in adjusted pre-tax profit, down to £528 million, while sales slipped by about 1.5%. Much of the weakness stemmed from “big-ticket” discretionary items, and performance in its French operations was particularly poor.
Against that backdrop, the company has outlined guidance for 2025/26 profits in the range of £480-£540 million and free cash flow between £420-£480 million. Measures to control costs, reduce inventory, and improve operational efficiency have already been underway.
These recent trends set the stage for what investors will be watching closely in the next update, particularly whether the company’s strategic initiatives are beginning to deliver measurable improvements.
UK operations provide relative strength
In next week’s trading update, attention will likely fall on how Kingfisher’s UK & Ireland business is holding up, particularly under the banners of B&Q, Screwfix and TradePoint.
Earlier reports have shown that UK operations have been more resilient than many of the continental units, benefiting from demand for seasonal and trade-oriented product lines, along with strong e-commerce momentum.
If those trends are continuing, they may help offset softness elsewhere and provide evidence that Kingfisher’s focus on trade customers and digital channels is paying dividends.
The performance of Screwfix, which targets professional tradespeople, will be particularly important as this segment has shown greater resilience to economic pressures than the DIY consumer market.
Continental operations face persistent headwinds
On the other hand, signs of further weakness in France and Poland may dampen expectations. France has been a drag, reflecting weak consumer sentiment and macroeconomic pressure, and Poland has shown volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty.
Weaker demand in certain large-ticket categories has affected both markets, with consumers deferring major home improvement projects during periods of economic uncertainty.
Any new evidence that these headwinds are intensifying could weigh heavily on the outlook and reinforce concerns about Kingfisher’s exposure to challenging European markets.
The company’s ability to navigate these regional challenges while maintaining overall group performance will be crucial for investor confidence going forward.
Cost pressures require strategic response
Analysts will also be focused on whether Kingfisher refines its guidance again, especially with respect to profit margins, costs, and cash flow. Government budget measures in both the UK and France have increased costs via tax, employer contributions, and regulation.
Kingfisher has already acknowledged that these will hit retail profit by tens of millions of pounds, and how the company plans to mitigate those impacts will be important for maintaining profitability targets.
Potential mitigation strategies include store efficiencies, supply chain adjustments, or rebalancing the mix of products toward higher-margin categories that can better absorb cost increases.
The effectiveness of these cost control measures will be crucial for maintaining the profit guidance range and demonstrating management’s ability to adapt to changing regulatory and economic conditions.
Kingfisher analyst ratings
According to LSEG Data & Analytics, most analysts rate Kingfisher as a ‘hold’ or a ‘sell’ with only one having a ‘strong buy’ recommendation. The mean long-term share price upside target is at around 290p, around 16% above the current share price (as of 17 September 2025).
