Geopolitics and international trade
Foreign policy is another key turning point. Trump’s protectionist policies could lead to trade tensions, especially with China and the European Union. This would generate volatility in global markets, particularly affecting emerging markets. In contrast, Harris would likely seek a more cooperative policy open to international trade, which could reduce geopolitical risk and stabilise global supply chains, benefiting multinational companies.
Impact on the currency and commodities market
The dollar could strengthen with a Trump victory, especially if he continues to promote expansionary fiscal policies. However, an aggressive approach to trade could generate pressures on emerging market currencies. Conversely, Harris could create a more stable environment in the currency market, with less appreciation of the dollar if her administration adopts a more moderate approach to fiscal policy.
Regarding commodities, a Trump government would boost oil prices, while Harris would likely favour a transition to clean energy, generating demand in commodities linked to green technologies, such as lithium and copper.
US elections profoundly affect financial markets. If Donald Trump wins, sectors such as oil, defence, and banking are likely to see a boost, while a Kamala Harris victory would benefit renewable energy, healthcare, and clean technologies. Investors will need to adjust their portfolios depending on the outcome, as each scenario presents distinct opportunities and risks.
