00:00 Speaker A
US stocks closing mixed as President Trump’s tax bill passes in the Senate. Here with the training day takeaways, Yahoo Finance’s Ali Canal.
00:10 Ali Canal
Yeah, a lot happened today and I’m going to get to that Senate bill in just a minute, but let’s start about uh what we saw earlier with the positive labor market data. We saw job openings and labor turnover that survey coming in better than expected. We saw job openings reaching their highest level since November 2024, the quits rate, which is a sign of confidence among workers also edged slightly higher. We did see hiring slip in the month. So decade low hiring, decade low quit rate, but economists they’re not really too concerned about that because we haven’t seen a ton of layoffs. Corporations, we’ve learned from past downturns, past recessions that it’s really hard to hire those workers back. So as long as we continue to see uh, you know, steady hiring but also no layoffs, that’s going to be key for this job market. And it does set us up for that critical non-farm payroll report which we will be getting on Thursday due to the July 4th holiday. Bloomberg uh estimates say we will see 110,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate to tick slightly higher to 4.3% there. So that sets us up pretty well uh heading into the the summer months. And then if we look at the big beautiful bill, we did see some reaction there in stocks. It seems like it was largely priced in, no huge surprises there, but you are taking a look at some tech names. We saw Nvidia down 3%, meta down about 2.5% today. Obviously Tesla, the biggie down 5%, this has to do with a lot of those EV credits getting uh removed from this bill. And what the Senate also did is they struck down a ban which would eliminate state level AI regulation. So this is a big disappointment on the part of some of these tech companies. But solar stocks did see a bit of a bid here. And if you take a look at something like a Sunrun, for example, we’re up about 11% at this point. So uh that comes as they removed an excise tax which would make a lot of these projects more expensive. So it just goes to show how different pockets, different sectors of this market can react pretty swiftly to a lot of these policy changes.
03:44 Speaker A
It was interesting to see the reaction to the markets. your point, we had analysts on the show today who kind of said, listen, this was priced in in their opinion. The bond market was interesting because obviously a lot of worries about debt and deficits, Elon Musk is furious about that. He’s on X, but it was a shrug initially. I mean the 10-year 424 was where it was when I last checked. Now, we’ll see what happens. I mean, do we see a pushback from the bond market? We’ll find out.
04:27 Ali Canal
Bond market has been pretty boring and about a month ago I was doing so much reporting on bonds because we just saw yields surging to the upside, but not really anymore. We’ve seen this muted reaction here when it comes to the the bond market, when it comes to some of those longer term yields, uh the 10 year and the 30 year in particular. But experts have told me that if we continue to see any significant move higher in yields, you’re looking at uh the 10-year note about 4.25. That could be the biggest risk to this rally and it’s not necessarily the level, it’s more so the rate of change. So we just don’t want to see a quick escalation, a quick sell off of bonds. So that’s a great point, Josh, and it’s something that I’m continuing to watch closely as well. And then finally, are we in a frothy market? So this was interesting, this caught my eye from Goldman Sachs and it’s these returns that we’re seeing across riskier corners of the market. So we see this Bitcoin sensitive index from Goldman Sachs, obviously the big outperformer here. Bitcoin is just crushed it up about 15% year to date. You’re seeing high beta non-profitable tech. I mean, this has the workings of a retail trader all over it and we’ve seen since the April bottoms that those younger traders, those that were born out of the pandemic, they’ve been the ones driving this rally higher. They have been aggressively buying the dip, there’s been a lot of FOMO chasing, momentum chasing. We’ve seen stocks like Palantir, Super Microcomputer as the best performers so far this year. So that can lead to some concerns if there’s just a bit of frothiness in this market when you’re leaning on these unprofitable tech names and we’ve been hearing that you really want to focus on those high quality stocks.
07:06 Speaker A
All right. Thank you, Ali. Appreciate it.
