Improved H1 sets positive foundation
Kingfisher approaches its 25 November third-quarter (Q3) trading update with investors watching closely for signs that the operational improvements seen in the first half of the year are beginning to translate into more consistent sales momentum.
The group’s half-year results to 31 July 2025 – published in late September – provided a more encouraging backdrop than earlier in the year, with the company delivering underlying like-for-like sales growth of around 1.9%.
The performance outperformed key competitors in several markets, with management emphasising that strong execution, improving online performance and ongoing traction in trade-customer initiatives had helped stabilise the business.
Even though consumer sentiment remains fragile across the UK and continental Europe, the operational improvements suggest Kingfisher is gaining ground.
Operational progress evident across multiple metrics
The half-year figures showed progress on several fronts: operational discipline improved, e-commerce growth remained resilient and Kingfisher increased its share in core categories across its main banners.
Including B&Q, Screwfix, Castorama and Brico Dépôt, all of which contributed to the improved overall performance.
Management highlighted strong improvements in availability and supply-chain efficiency, and the company also reiterated its commitment to cost control.
This element has become central given the inflationary pressures in labour, tax and logistics affecting the entire retail sector.
Upgraded guidance reflects improved confidence
Notably, the group narrowed and slightly upgraded the top end of its guidance for adjusted pre-tax profit and free cash flow for the full year.
This signalling of improved confidence following the better-than-expected trading performance in the first half provides encouragement about management’s outlook.
As the company now heads into the Q3 announcement, the central question is whether this improved momentum has carried through the crucial late-summer and early-autumn trading period.
In the comparable quarter last year, Kingfisher posted sales of roughly £3.2 billion but reported a like-for-like decline of about 1.1%, with weakness across big-ticket ranges.
Big-ticket categories face particular scrutiny
The company noted at the time that while August and September had shown some resilience, October had been held back by soft consumer demand – particularly in France – and poor weather conditions.
This year’s Q3 update will therefore be watched closely to see whether core categories continue to strengthen and whether big-ticket segments are showing signs of recovery. Such as kitchens, bathrooms and garden projects, which typically represent higher-value transactions and stronger margins.
Kingfisher’s strategic priorities also frame expectations for this update, with ambitions for further growth in trade-customer penetration and e-commerce marketplace expansion.
Strategic initiatives require validation
The half-year results highlighted promising progress in trade-customer penetration and e-commerce marketplace expansion, with trade sales continuing to grow faster than retail in several banners and online penetration improving thanks to marketplace expansion and better integration of click-and-collect services that leverage the physical store network.
This coming update will help clarify whether that momentum is accelerating or plateauing as the company executes its digital and trade-focused strategies.
However, risks remain prominent affecting the entire home improvement sector and Kingfisher’s ability to maintain momentum.
External headwinds create ongoing challenges
Consumer confidence in the UK, France and Poland continues to face pressure from the broader macroeconomic environment affecting discretionary spending patterns. Wage and tax increases – including higher employer National Insurance contributions in the UK – add cost pressure to operations that must be managed carefully.
Big-ticket categories remain sensitive to interest-rate expectations and household investment decisions, creating volatility in these important margin-contributing segments.
Kingfisher has sought to manage these pressures through tight cost control and efficiency programmes, but the Q3 figures will reveal effectiveness.
Update serves as sustainability test
In essence, the 25 November trading update will serve as a key indicator of whether Kingfisher’s improving first-half trajectory is sustainable.
If the company can demonstrate further strength across core ranges, resilient demand in its largest markets and continued gains in trade and e-commerce, the update could reinforce a narrative of steady recovery.
Conversely, renewed softness in like-for-like sales – particularly in France or big-ticket categories – would highlight that the macro environment remains a difficult headwind.
Even as the company executes well operationally, external factors could limit the extent of recovery.
Kingfisher technical analysis and analyst rating
The Kingfisher share price, up around 17% year-to-date, has been rejected by its September 2024 and May 2025 resistance area at 317.60p-to-333.5p in late October when its share price hit an over one-year high.
