Global Population Growth and Marine Food Potential
The urgency to meet the nutritional demands of a rapidly increasing global population, expected to reach 9.8 billion by 205041, cannot be overstated. In this context, the potential of marine foods, including species like hake, emerges as a pivotal element in addressing global food shortages and malnutrition challenges. Studies like Costello et al.42 have highlighted the significant opportunities marine resources offer for supporting food security, particularly in regions facing acute nutritional deficiencies. Marine ecosystems, once thought to be an endless source of resources, have the inherent capacity to augment global food supplies. Specifically, hake species, due to their widespread distribution and significant biomass, have the potential to be a key contributor to this endeavour. Our analysis revealed that 6 out of 22 hake species (including the genus Urophycis) accounted for 94% of total catches from 1950 to 2020, underlining the species’ global significance in fisheries (Fig. 1). However, the contribution of hake to the increase in aquatic food production may be constrained due to the overexploitation and full exploitation of most hake stocks. These species, typically large and long-lived top predators within marine demersal ecosystems, have exploitation rates that are heavily influenced by the historical fishing practices and the health of the ecosystems. Our results showed a notable growth in total hake transactions in both volume and value, although the growth rate has stabilized since 2016 (Figure S3). This scenario raises concerns about the sustainable management of hake fisheries to support future food security.
The contribution of marine foods like hake to global nutrition is also underscored by their high protein content and essential fatty acids, which are crucial for human health. These nutritional attributes make them an ideal candidate for addressing the protein requirements of a growing population. Yet, the declining trend in global hake catches since their peak in the 1970s (Fig. 1) highlight a critical challenge in harnessing this potential. The decline in hake catches is juxtaposed with the increasing demand for protein-rich foods globally. As human diets evolve with growing economic prosperity in various regions, the demand for seafood is expected to rise, further straining the already overexploited marine resources43. This scenario presents a complex challenge: balancing the need for increased marine food production with sustainable fishing practices to ensure the long-term viability of these resources.
As we move towards a future where food security becomes increasingly critical, it is imperative to adopt sustainable marine resource management strategies. These strategies should not only focus on optimising yield but also on preserving marine biodiversity and ecosystem health. The sustainable management of hake fisheries, therefore, becomes a case study within of the broader challenge facing global marine food resources. Efforts to increase aquatic food production through advances in fisheries, aquaculture, and mariculture are promising43. However, these need to be coupled with stringent conservation measures and effective management policies to address the dual challenges of food security and environmental sustainability.
Hake Overexploitation and Sustainability Challenges
The sustainability of hake populations is a critical concern in the face of escalating global demand for seafood. A simple visual examination of hake fisheries production data reveals that despite their considerable contribution to marine food resources, hake species contend with the dual challenges of overexploitation and catch fluctuation (Fig. 2). Significant spikes and subsequent declines in hake catches are observed across various regions, including South America in the early 2000s (Fig. 2b), Southern Europe in the late 1990s (Fig. 2c), Southern Africa in the late 1960s (Fig. 2d), Eastern Asia in the 1960s and 1970s (Fig. 2e), and the Australia and New Zealand subregion around 2006 (Fig. 2f). These shifts could suggest overfishing but also warrant consideration of additional potential factors, such as changes in regulations, enforcement of quotas, conservation efforts, and ecological dynamics that could influence these trends. These patterns are concerning as they directly impact the species’ demography and, consequently, their reproductive viability and population health9. For instance, in 2019, South Pacific hake (Merluccius gayi) and Southern hake (Merluccius australis) were identified as overfished. Additionally, silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis) and white hake (Urophycis tenuis) failed to show a significant recovery in the Northwest Atlantic. Moreover, European hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the Mediterranean and Black Sea exceeded biologically sustainable limits9.
The patterns observed in hake fisheries mirror a broader trend in global fisheries, where overexploitation often results in reduced catches and jeopardises long-term sustainability44. This is particularly evident in the EU context, where our analysis shows a consistent decline in hake catches since the early 1990s, with Spain recording the highest volume of catches (Table 1, Fig. 2c). Such trends point to the need for re-evaluating current fishing practices and implementing more sustainable approaches. In addition to the ecological impacts, overexploitation has significant economic ramifications. The stability of hake catches has led to fluctuations in market prices and supply uncertainties, affecting the livelihoods of those dependent on these fisheries. The observed stability and subsequent decline in hake catches, particularly in regions like Europe, have economic implications that extend beyond the fishing industry, impacting food security and trade dynamics globally45.
The ecological consequences of overfishing are not limited to the species targeted. The removal of top predators like hake can lead to trophic cascades and imbalance in marine ecosystems46,47. This highlights the interconnectedness of marine species and the importance of maintaining ecological balance to ensure the sustainability of fisheries. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach that encompasses both regulatory measures and community engagement. Effective fishery management policies, including catch limits, size restrictions, and closed seasons, are essential to prevent overfishing and allow stock recovery48. Additionally, promoting responsible fishing practices and raising awareness about the importance of sustainable seafood consumption are vital steps towards mitigating the overexploitation of hake and other marine resources49.
In this context, the concept of “sustainable commoditization” as proposed by Belton, Reardon, and Zilberman50 becomes particularly relevant. They advocate for a model where seafood production not only meets the growing global demand but does so sustainably by integrating efficient production processes with sustainability principles. This approach aims to balance food security needs with environmental conservation, emphasizing the development of robust supply chains and regulatory frameworks that support sustainable practices across the Global North and South. Such strategies are vital to ensuring that seafood commoditization contributes to economic growth while minimizing negative environmental impacts.
Global Trade Dynamics and Dependency
The global trade dynamics of hake have evolved significantly over the past decades, reflecting broader changes in the seafood industry and international market dependencies. Our study indicates that Europe, particularly Spain, has emerged as a dominant importer in the hake market, underscoring a major shift in global seafood trade (Figure S1 and Figure S2). Furthermore, hake are often harvested in multispecies fisheries utilizing non-selective methods like bottom trawling. This shift highlights the growing dependence of developed countries on seafood imports to satisfy domestic demand, a trend that has been steadily increasing due to declining local catches and heightened consumer preferences for diverse seafood products45. In the case of Spain, only 8% of the hake consumed in this country is caught in its territorial waters27.
The intensification of international trade, especially in hake, has been driven by a range of factors, including overfishing in traditional fishing grounds, regulatory changes in fisheries management, and the globalisation of food systems. The effect of overexploitation in developed countries has led to reforms aimed at reducing fishing pressure and rebuilding fish stocks. This globalisation of food commodities creates opportunities for the import of essential nutrients, especially in developing countries where domestic resources may be limited1,2. However, as our findings show, these reforms have also resulted in a reduced domestic seafood production, thereby increasing the reliance on imports from other regions, especially from countries like Namibia, Argentina, and South Africa (Table 2, Figs. 2c and 4). Additionally, nutrient flows do not always align from countries with surplus nutrient production to those with deficits. In low and lower-middle-income countries, the role of trade in filling nutrient gaps is generally marginal and cannot reliably compensate for domestic shortfalls51.
This increased dependency on imports has significant implications for global trade dynamics. The rise in import and export activities across all regions from 2016 to 2018, followed by a decrease from 2019, reflects not only the fluctuations in hake availability but also the impact of global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure S2, Figure S3). Developed countries, in their quest to maintain high seafood consumption levels, have thus turned to developing nations to bridge the gap in domestic supply. This trend is particularly evident in Europe, where imports have far outnumbered exports, creating a heavy reliance on hake sourced from other parts of the world.
The transition from domestic production to increased imports in developed countries has created a complex network of trade relationships. As our cluster analysis reveals, countries like Spain, Argentina, and the USA have become central nodes in this network, facilitating significant trade flows across continents (Fig. 4). These countries, due to their strategic geographical locations and historical trade links, play a crucial role in the global hake market, influencing both the supply and pricing of hake internationally.
Moreover, the global trade in hake is not merely an economic transaction but also a reflection of geopolitical relationships and regional alliances. Countries with a high degree of network intermediation, such as Spain, have been able to leverage their trade relationships to secure a steady supply of hake, thereby influencing global market dynamics (Fig. 3 and Figure S5). This scenario underscores the interdependence of nations in the modern era, where international trade acts as a critical facilitator connecting diverse regions and influencing food and nutrition security1,2. However, this increased interdependence also raises concerns about the resilience of global food systems to shocks, such as ecological disruptions or political changes. The fluctuations in trade volumes and the uneven distribution of trade benefits highlight the vulnerability of countries, particularly those heavily reliant on seafood imports, to external factors.
Economic Disparities and Trade Benefits
The global hake trade exhibits significant economic disparities, manifesting an uneven distribution of benefits among nations. Our analysis reveals a clear correlation between a country’s economic status, as measured by GDP, and its role within the hake trade network, influencing the distribution of trade benefits (Fig. 3). This pattern underscores a broader dynamic in global trade, where wealthier nations frequently secure superior positions, enabling them to access resources and maximize trade opportunities effectively. Developed countries, particularly those with robust economic and trade infrastructures such as Spain, have substantially benefited from the hake trade. Their prominent role as major importers in the global market (Figure S1 and S4) not only ensures a consistent seafood supply but also grants them considerable influence over global market prices and trade policies.
Conversely, developing nations, despite their significant contributions to the global hake supply, often occupy a less favourable position. For example, Watson et al.10 highlight that lower-income countries export high-value seafood to alleviate poverty and ensure food security by importing lower-value seafood. This strategy reflects deliberate trade adjustments aimed at achieving broader economic and social goals, such as poverty alleviation and enhancing food security. However, this exchange of nutrients between nations presents challenges, particularly for low and lower-middle-income countries. They struggle to offset domestic nutrient deficits through imports, a dilemma that frequently results in irreversible nutritional shortfalls51.
Countries like Namibia and Argentina, which are key hake exporters, face the challenge of balancing their economic growth with the sustainability of their natural resources. The export-driven approach of these nations, while beneficial in the short term, raises concerns about the long-term impacts on their fisheries and local economies (Table 2, Fig. 3, Figure S1). Moreover, the reliance of developing countries on export revenues from hake trade can make them vulnerable to market fluctuations and external economic pressures. The disparities in the hake trade network also reflect a broader issue of inequitable resource distribution in global trade. While some countries reap significant economic benefits, others struggle to gain equitable access to resources and markets. This imbalance poses a challenge to achieving sustainable and inclusive growth in the global seafood industry.
Moreover, the socio-economic impacts of the seafood trade, especially on small-scale fisheries, highlight significant inequities in benefit distribution. Drury O’Neill et al.52 have shown that although the seafood trade generates considerable economic value, the benefits are disproportionately skewed towards actors higher up in the value chain, such as processors and retailers, rather than local fishers. This disparity underscores the need for market structures that foster fair trade practices and bolster the livelihoods of small-scale fishers, who play a vital role in the sustainability of marine resources.
Trade resilience and food security
The resilience of global trade networks, especially in the realm of hake trade, is integral to sustaining food security. Our study highlights those countries like Spain, which have diversified their trade networks, exhibit greater resilience against disruptions in the seafood market (Fig. 7). This resilience is vital in ensuring a consistent supply of food, particularly in areas heavily reliant on seafood imports for nutrition. The relationship between trade resilience and food security is intricate, influenced by geopolitical, ecological, and economic factors that impact trade stability.
The COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, presented significant challenges but also catalysed innovative adaptations in the seafood industry. Love et al.53 documented how disruptions, while causing substantial losses, also fostered innovative responses such as the adoption of direct-to-consumer sales platforms. These innovations not only buffered against global disruptions but also opened new opportunities for market expansion. Stoll et al.54 further observed the effectiveness of alternative seafood networks during the pandemic, proposing them as models for a more resilient seafood trade system. In response to these challenges, developed regions are expected to shift towards more self-reliant seafood trade models, while developing regions might struggle due to their dependence on seafood exports, a scenario discussed by Wei et al.55.
Our findings indicate that countries with prominent roles in the hake trade network, such as Spain, Italy, and Germany, demonstrate strategic trade centrality crucial for a stable food supply (Table S2, Fig. 7, Fig. S7). Their capacity to maintain steady import volumes despite potential trade disruptions underlines the importance of establishing robust and varied trade connections.
Moreover, our analysis of the hake trade network underscores the importance of regional trade clusters and mutual trade agreements in enhancing food security. Countries within these clusters, often bound by cultural ties and historical trade relationships, benefit from a fairer distribution of resources and improved self-reliance. This aspect is particularly important for low or lower-middle-income countries facing acute food security challenges. Yet, the global hake trade is not immune to shocks, such as ecological disturbances or political shifts. These events can cause ripple effects on food prices and availability, impacting both exporters and importers. The vulnerability of global trade to such disruptions emphasises the necessity for adaptive and resilient trading systems capable of responding to and mitigating potential impacts on global food security3,4,8,20. Additionally, there is a growing need to re-evaluate international trade rules and shift towards shorter-distance trade, which emphasizes exports and imports between proximate countries within the same continent. Intra-regional trade remains vital for low and lower-middle-income countries. Enhancing regional integration through bilateral and regional trade agreements and investments in regional connectivity could improve nutrient adequacy at the regional level51.
Adapting Hake Fisheries to Global Shifts: Challenges and Strategies
The global hake market, deeply impacted by shifting dynamics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, has seen significant trade volume fluctuations27. This volatility highlights the fragility of international seafood markets and underscores the need for resilient supply chains. In developing countries, particularly in regions like Namibia, the challenge extends to balancing lucrative international trade with addressing local nutrient deficiencies, as emphasised by Hicks et al.56. The sustainable exploitation of local hake populations could significantly contribute to meeting the nutritional needs of coastal communities reducing the dependency of local food security from global markets stability.
Moreover, the complexity of global hake trade is magnified by bilateral and private fisheries agreements, which often dictate seafood transfer patterns, influencing both global and local market dynamics45. These agreements, along with the broader trade policies, play a significant role in shaping the accessibility and sustainability of hake fisheries.
Considering these challenges, aligning hake fisheries management with the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly the Zero Hunger Goal, becomes crucial. This alignment necessitates a balanced approach, ensuring that the exploitation of hake stocks for international trade does not compromise the ecological sustainability and food security of local populations.
