Property is a favorite British conversation topic. Nearly everyone has an opinion on where house prices are heading, the next property hotspot or where homes should – and shouldn’t – be built.
But to get a true sense of what’s driving the market, it is worth listening to the people who live and breathe property day in, day out.
In this series, we put an expert through their paces each month.
We want to know their view on all of the hot-button topics mentioned above as well as mortgage rates, buy-to-let and housebuilding.
We will even question them about their very own mortgage, and their best and worst investments to date.
This month we spoke to Rob Dix, co-founder of Property Hub, a buy-to-let sourcing company that puts together over £100 million of property deals each year for its clients.
In the hot seat: Rob Dix, co-founder of Property Hub and co-host of The Property Podcast
Rob is also co-host of The Property Podcast and a bestselling author with books including two Sunday Times bestsellers; ‘Seven Myths About Money’ and ‘The Price Of Money.’
He is also a portfolio buy-to-let investor, having bought his first rental property over a decade ago.
Last year, we interviewed Rob on why he and his family prefer to rent the property they live in rather than opting to buy.
1. What will house prices do over the next 12 months?
I think house prices will rise by at most, 2 per cent on average, continuing the pattern of the last couple of years of prices slightly falling in inflation-adjusted terms.
We’ll continue to see big regional differences, with higher growth in the north and smaller, less expensive properties performing better than larger, pricier ones.
2. What will happen to prices over the next decade?
The most likely scenario is that property prices continue to rise at the same pace as inflation, or a little faster, as they have done historically over the long term.
At some point in the next ten years we’ll probably have a boom and a crash as they tend to happen every so often, but it’s impossible to predict the timing.
It doesn’t sound exciting but if you use a mortgage so your debt is fixed, just regular inflation-linked growth can lead to great results over a decade.
House prices had been climbing until recently after suffering a dip in 2022 and 2023
3. Where will mortgage rates be in 12 months?
I imagine we will see buy-to-let mortgage rates settling in the fours, maybe half a percent or so lower than they are now.
4. Why do you prefer renting where you live?
Living where I do in London, renting actually works out cheaper than owning.
But I’d opt to rent regardless because I don’t know where or what size of property I want to be living in in five years’ time.
Buying would incur such huge stamp duty costs that it really wouldn’t make any sense.
Renting isn’t throwing money away any more than paying mortgage interest is throwing money away, as long as you’re also investing in assets.
5. What mortgage do you go for on your buy-to-lets?
I always use interest-only loans because it’s counterintuitively safer: the monthly payment is lower, which keeps expenses down if you do end up having a period when rent isn’t coming in. There’s always the option of over-paying.
I always fix for five years to reduce fees and have more certainty, and would only recommend going shorter if you plan to withdraw equity from your portfolio.
6. What is the most urgent property crisis?
In my opinion, the lack of social housing puts too much reliance on the private rented sector and prevents the people most in need of support from having the security they need. So-called affordable housing is a fudge that doesn’t solve the problem.
7. Will Labour hit its 1.5 million home target?
No, because no government in living memory has ever hit its home building target.
With so little social housing being built, it’s not something the government realistically has control over.
8. What could stop house prices rising?
House prices always eventually hit an affordability ceiling where buyers can’t pay any more based on their income, so if we fail to see productivity growth and therefore wage growth, that will keep a brake on house prices.
But the only thing I can think of that would make a major dent in house prices would be much tougher restrictions on mortgage lending, which doesn’t seem likely to happen.
9. Are landlords being unfairly targeted?
Although they haven’t been popular among investors, I can see the sense of the moves that have been made over the last decade to curb the buy-to-let sector and professionalise it.
However, I can see landlords continuing to be disproportionately targeted because there’s little political risk in doing so.
There are of course a minority of incompetent and even criminal landlords, but for the most part, the rules to prevent them exist – they’re just being poorly enforced.
10. Is buy-to-let a good or bad investment today?
It’s a good investment if you approach it for the long term and you use a mortgage.
Compared to any other kind of investment you can make, you can buy three times as much of it by using debt that’s guaranteed to shrink as a result of inflation.
You’ve also got a rental income stream that tends to rise in line with inflation, and the lack of volatility means that it’s an investment that some people are more comfortable with compared to the stock market.
Easy target: Rob Dix thinks landlords will continue to be disproportionately targeted because there’s little political risk in doing so
11. If you could pick one area to invest in property for the next decade, where would it be?
It would be any city or popular commuter town in the North West.
It’s the region that’s been performing best and is projected to keep doing so over the next five years.
It’s also an area where there’s headroom for prices to grow, and rental growth is strong too.
12. What one location would you be avoiding?
The South East, outside London. Affordability is so restricted there just isn’t any room for prices to meaningfully rise, and yields are low.
North West boom: Rob says that cities and towns in the North West of England is where he’d invest over the next five years
13. Prime central London prices are below their 2014 peak: Will it boom again?
London will always be a safe bet over the long term, but with the UK becoming less popular internationally as well as the extremely high stamp duty costs which add potentially hundreds of thousands of pounds to the purchase price of a prime London property, I can’t see it having a strong rebound.
14. If you were Chancellor of the Exchequer, how would you help first-time buyers?
Most initiatives intended to help first-time buyers serve only to increase house prices, so I wouldn’t bring back anything like Help to Buy.
I’d be more inclined to introduce a policy like exempting the first, say, £100,000 of lifetime earnings from tax, making it easier for people early in their careers to save whether that’s for a house or something else.
If you were chancellor? Dix would consider exempting the first £100,000 of lifetime earnings from tax to make it easier for people to save towards their first home
15. Do you have any negotiation tips for buyers making offers to estate agents?
Many sellers are looking for certainty rather than the highest price, so make sure you have a mortgage offer lined up, a solicitor in place and can demonstrate that you are organised and ready to proceed.
Then if your offer is rejected, do keep following up because a third of transactions end up falling through.
16. What’s the best piece of advice you’d give to someone looking to get on the ladder?
Have wealthy parents. Or, more seriously, don’t rush if you’re not sure that you’ll want to stay put for at least five years.
While there’s a perception that house prices always run away from you, I don’t think there will be any rapid growth in the near future.
Transaction costs are brutal, and you only quality for first-time buyer stamp duty benefits once.
Appear serious: When making an offer to estate agents, Rob advises that buyers have a mortgage offer lined up and a solicitor already in place
17. What’s the one piece of advice you’d give someone planning to sell their home this year?
Do your own online research into what you think it’s worth and don’t let estate agents talk you up to something that’s unachievable.
Data shows that once something has been mispriced and sat on the market, it’s much less likely to ever sell.
18. What’s your best ever property investment?
A house in Nottingham that I bought in May 2020 at the peak of Covid panic when the market was effectively shut down.
This allowed me to get it at a great price, I’ve had the same tenants in there ever since, and I forget I own it for months on end.
Hands off: Rob says a house he purchased in Nottingham in 2020 has been his best ever investment to date
19. What’s the worst investment you’ve ever made?
Houses in Hull where I got a good deal, but they’re not in the most desirable area so prices have been flat compared to stronger locations.
Also, the rents are so low that a small repair can wipe out months of profit.
20. What would you do if you inherited £100,000 tomorrow?
The answer is very specific to my personal goal of generating wealth over the long term, and won’t be right for everyone.
But boringly, I would use a mortgage to buy a modest family home in a quality area in the Midlands or the North, price the rent slightly below market rates so I had a huge pool of applicants to choose from, then let it quietly sit there for years on end.
