Social media posts by mortgage brokers and analysts have been predicting a tougher than ever market for both sellers and buyers in 2026.
According to posts on X, Facebook and LinkedIn, many commentators are citing several concerns over the mortgage market as the month progresses.
Basing this on some data at the start of the year from Savills, which showed prime property prices had fallen more than 24 per cent since 2014, one commentator called it “just the start” of a property value rout, with prices dropping 50 per cent.
Examples of ‘warning notes’ from brokers include:
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A near-25 per cent drop in prime property prices since 2014
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Continuing pressure on household finances
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Sellers not getting anywhere near their initial valuations
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Lack of affordable properties in clients’ preferred postcodes.
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Concern over the so-called ‘Mansion Tax’.
Even the ultra high-net-worth properties have come under scrutiny.
According to Savills data, London’s £5mn-plus sales market hit a five-year low in 2025.
Comprehensive whole market analysis for second-hand and new build revealed there were 412 £5mn-plus transactions in 2025.
This was 11 per cent down on 2024’s figures. Meanwhile even the wealthy got a discount on the sale price, with buyers spending an average £4.09bn on homes priced at £5mn or more – an 18 per cent decrease on 2024.
My prediction for UK house prices is an average 50% collapse compared to the £293k peak that the ONS originally reported in Aug 2023.
I made this prediction back in Feb 2025 and have never set a timeline.
But it will happen much quicker than people think 🏠📉
— Mark Tabrett (@mrtabrett) December 30, 2025
Some brokers said the suggestion the UK housing market could see up to 50 per cent drops over the course of 2025 was a reasonable prediction about what might happen, given the UK’s economic fortunes.
But many others have told FT Adviser this “talk of doom” could become a self-fulfilling prophecy as people read these things on social media and then act on them.
Indeed, one broker said it was important to “control our attitude”, regardless of whatever the market might bring.
This was the view of Riz Malik, director at Southend-on-Sea-based R3 Wealth, who said: “There are over 1.8mn renewals coming up in 2026.
“Regardless of what happens in the purchase market there are enough clients that need advice. We cannot control the market but we can control our attitude and outlook.”
Pragmatic approach
Some called the naysaying “noise”. According to Ranald Mitchell, director at Norwich-based Charwin Mortgages, this “talk of doom for 2026 is more noise than evidence”.
He said: “The market is more price sensitive and more segmented, but also more competitive.
“As funding costs ease, lenders will keep sharpening pricing, and the bigger shift will be criteria: smarter affordability, better recognition of real world income, and a more pragmatic approach to historic credit blips.”
There is always a need for moves. People will always need to buy and sell.
Mitchell said this would not just help prime borrowers, but would also bring a “meaningful slice of good customers back into the market, and that is where the opportunity is”.
Similarly, Chris Schutrups, founder of Southampton-based The Mortgage Hut, said while the last part of 2025 was “one of the most challenging times” in his 15-year career, there were opportunities abounding.
“People will always need to buy and sell, and 2026 looks promising
He explained that, as people waited to see the Budget’s impact last November, purchase transactions slowed across The Mortgage Hut’s mortgage and estate agency businesses.
However, December was exceptionally busy, even leading up to Christmas Eve.
Schutrups explained: “This continued interest suggests significant pent-up demand. What I’ve learned since starting my business after the 2008 recession is that there is always a need for moves.
“People will always need to buy and sell, and 2026 looks promising with a predicted 2 per cent growth in house prices.
“In this market, those with a positive mindset and a focus on the best customer experience will win.”
He added: “With more brokers and fewer customers, being customer-centric is vital. 2025 was about putting foundations down; 2026 will be the year of opportunity.”
Balanced views
Justin Moy, managing director at Chelmsford-based EHF Mortgages commented: “There is plenty that might happen in 2026; it’s a combination of a poorly managed and badly-timed budget that’s left everyone with no momentum as we hit the end of the year.”
Even given the mortgage rate movements over the past three years — after being spooked by Liz Truss’s disastrous “mini-budget” that sent mortgages into panic mode — he said there were “plenty of borrowers still on extremely low rates that will need support, and buyers will be ultra-cautious given the relative cost of purchasing.”
He added: “Further squeezes on income will only lower the mood of the public until the economy eventually improves.
“Until then, it feels like 2026 will be a year of stability. We have enough schemes and opportunities for borrowers, just need that confidence to come back to the market.”
Indeed, some brokers told FT Adviser at the start of January that 2026 could be their “strongest market”, as the highlighted article, below, suggests.
These comments were echoed by those of Elliott Culley, director at Hayling Island-based Switch Mortgage Finance, who said he believed there were still opportunities for mortgage advisers as 2026 would remain a “buyers’ market”.
According to Culley: “With the base rate predicted to fall over the course of 2026 it’s likely mortgage rates will also reduce.
“This could lead to first-time buyers returning to the mortgage market after many put their plans on hold in 2025 when stamp duty changed. It will remain a buyers market and houses prices are likely to reduce in regions of the UK.
“Some will be put off by rises in living costs, but if mortgage rates do reduce it may offset these costs and bring some back to the market.”
