Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, January 29: Higher, But Still Low

Mortgage rates aren’t so much higher today as they are back to normal. Yesterday’s abrupt and unexplained drop felt like noise in the data rather than a new tune, so it’s unsurprising to see it’s already being erased. The Federal Reserve officially pausing its series of rate cuts took away any immediate potential for downward pressure, too — more on that below the graph.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.06% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 12 basis points higher than yesterday and 15 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced that — as markets almost unanimously anticipated — it was pausing its series of rate cuts. While the Fed’s actual decision was a given, the potential for drama at Chair Jerome Powell’s post-announcement press conference had Fed-watchers on the edges of their seats. After Powell’s Jan. 11 video rebuke of a threatened criminal indictment, there was a feeling that the gloves might be off — or at least that the Fed may be showing a little wrist.

That did not turn out to be the case, as Powell rebuffed questions that related to the administration or the indictment. He also emphasized the central bankers’ view that the economy is on decent footing, even if it might not feel that way to the average American. “After the three recent rate cuts, we’re well positioned to address the risks” to employment and inflation, Powell remarked during the press conference. “We’ll continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the incoming data.”

With the Fed in the rearview, the Nerds are looking ahead to next Friday’s Employment Situation Summary, better known as the jobs report. In yesterday’s statement, the central bankers removed language from their announcement about risks to the labor market being higher. (That doesn’t sound like a big deal, but wording changes in Fed statements can be A Whole Thing.) Employment data coming in next week, culminating with the jobs report, will let us know whether the Fed’s edit was a bit hasty. If it looks like the labor market is weakening, we could see mortgage rates fall in anticipation of future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.56% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

• Location and property type

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.