Today’s mortgage rates
Average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday and over the entire week. So, they closed (early for yesterday’s Good Friday holiday) on Thursday in pretty much exactly the same place as they stood the previous Friday. Such stagnancy over an entire business week is exceedingly rare.
But that’s likely to change next week. Because we’re due several important economic reports, culminating in next Friday’s jobs report. And that’s widely regarded as one of each month’s two most consequential reports for mortgage rates.
Also, senior Federal Reserve officials share 16 speaking engagements and may choose to use those to manage markets’ expectations over future cuts to general interest rates. Altogether, next week is highly unpredictable for mortgage rates and I can’t forecast how they’ll move.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
| Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.18% | 7.19% | Unchanged |
| Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.55% | 6.58% | +0.05 |
| Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.16% | 7.18% | Unchanged |
| Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.6% | 6.62% | +0.08 |
| 30-year fixed FHA | 6.3% | 6.98% | +0.02 |
| 30-year fixed VA | 6.54% | 6.65% | -0.01 |
| 5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.29% | 7.4% | Unchanged |
| Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. | |||
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Only a few months ago, I was expecting us to be already seeing a firm downward trend in mortgage rates. But that’s been delayed by a stronger economy and hotter inflation than economists were forecasting. Now, I suspect that trend won’t emerge until at least the summer and possibly the fall.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
Moderate your expectations for low rates
On Mar 22, The Wall Street Journal (paywall) ran a story under the headline, “The New Normal for Mortgage Rates Will Be Higher Than Many Hope.” If anyone is expecting a return to mortgage rates in the 2.x%-5.x% range anytime soon, they’re likely to be disappointed.
How come? Well, the Journal explained, “That is because mortgages, and mortgage-backed bonds, just aren’t as in demand in financial markets as they were in the years before the Fed began to start to tighten in 2022. And they might not be for a while.”
The article went on to explain that the gap (“spread” in marketspeak) between what investors are prepared to pay for 10-year Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) has been widening. MBSs are the bonds that largely determine mortgage rates. So, a wider spread means higher mortgage rates than we used to expect, even allowing for falling yields in the wider bond market.
I’m still forecasting that mortgage rates will fall later this year. That looks highly likely.
However, don’t expect them to plummet. In its latest forecast, Fannie Mae predicts rates on conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages to average 6.6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025. And I reckon that could well prove roughly correct.
Yesterday
Yesterday’s important inflation report had the potential to disrupt mortgage rates for days or weeks to come. But it didn’t.
That’s because the four key numbers came in remarkably close to market expectations. And movements in stocks, commodity prices, bond yields and mortgage rates tend to happen when there’s a gap between what markets are expecting and a report’s actual figures. As a rule, the bigger that gap, the bigger the change.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell echoed many’s thoughts yesterday when he remarked in response to the inflation index, “It’s good to see something coming in in line with expectations.”
Next week’s employment reports
Depending on the calendar, the first week of each month brings three or four economic reports on employment. Next week, we are due:
- Job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) for February on Tuesday
- ADP employment report (private-sector jobs only) for March on Wednesday. Sometimes seen as a bellwether for the jobs report
- Official jobs report (aka the employment situation report) for March on Friday
Each of these can be interesting and may move mortgage rates. But only the jobs report is likely to move them far or for long. It is a real blockbuster: one of the two most consequential monthly reports.
I’ll brief you on each of these on the day before it’s published. Indeed, I’ll do the same for all next week’s reports that might appreciably affect mortgage rates.
Other reports next week
You’ll find a list of economic reports lower on this page. Most of them rarely affect mortgage rates much. But the ones that are most likely to do so (but only if they contain unexpected data) are:
- March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for the manufacturing (Monday) and services (Wednesday) sectors. Two from S&P and two from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
- March auto sales (Tuesday)
In theory, any economic report can move mortgage rates if it contains shockingly good or bad data. But only important ones move them far or for long.
Fed speakers
Fed officials share 16 speaking engagements next week. And markets keep an ear open for them in case they betray shifts in the central bank’s thinking over future cuts to general interest rates.
But Wall Street keeps both ears open whenever Fed Chair Jerome Powell opens his mouth. And it hangs on his every word. So, watch out for his public appearance at 12:10 p.m. (Eastern) next Wednesday.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
- Monday — March manufacturing PMIs from the ISM and S&P. February construction spending
- Tuesday — February JOLTS. Plus February factory orders
- Wednesday — March ADP employment report. Also, March services PMIs from the ISM and S&P. Also, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
- Thursday — February trade balance. Plus initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 30
- Friday — March jobs report. Also, March consumer credit
Friday’s the big day for mortgage rates next week.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
Next week, everything hinges on Friday’s jobs report. If it’s unexpectedly good or bad, the consequences for mortgage rates will likely swamp any changes earlier in the week. Will it be better or worse than expected? Nobody knows. And that means I can’t predict how mortgage rates will move next week.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
- Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
- Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
- Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
- Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
- Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
- Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
- Interest — The price of borrowing
- Taxes — Specifically property taxes
- Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
