reports fourth-quarter results Thursday before the market opens, with investors focused on the RNA medicine developer’s dual strategy in obesity and rare disease as it transitions to a fully integrated commercial operation.
Analysts expect a loss of 27 cents per share on revenue of $17.2 million, representing significant sequential improvement from the third quarter, when Wave posted a 32-cent loss on revenue of $7.6 million. That prior quarter disappointed investors, with the company missing both earnings and revenue estimates by wide margins.
EPS estimates have declined 2.9% over the past 60 days, while revenue estimates have fallen 8.4% over the same period, though both have remained flat over the past week. Despite the downward revisions, all 16 analysts covering the stock rate it a Strong Buy, with a mean price target of $33.38—implying 138% upside from the current $14.02 share price.
The bullish sentiment reflects optimism around Wave’s clinical pipeline, particularly following December data showing WVE-007, its obesity candidate, achieved fat loss on par with semaglutide after just three months with muscle preservation. Analysts view WVE-007 as the primary valuation driver, with additional data from higher doses and longer follow-up periods expected during the first quarter.
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The obesity program’s development timeline will be paramount. Wave expects to initiate new clinical trials evaluating WVE-007 as an add-on to incretin and as post-incretin maintenance in 2026, testing the drug’s potential in combination strategies that could differentiate it in the crowded obesity market.
Wave’s rare disease strategy has also shifted dramatically. The company regained full global rights to WVE-006 for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency from GSK in early February, assuming complete development and commercialization responsibilities for the RNA editing candidate. Wave plans to engage the FDA on a potential accelerated approval pathway, with regulatory feedback anticipated mid-2026. The move follows competitor Beam Therapeutics’ recent FDA alignment on a biomarker-based accelerated approval path for its own AATD candidate, providing a potential roadmap.
Financial flexibility remains a focus as Wave takes on expanded obligations. Management has reiterated its cash runway extends into the third quarter of 2028, though investors will scrutinize burn rate guidance as the company builds commercial capabilities.
With shares trading 35% below their 52-week high of $21.73, the earnings call could determine whether Wave can sustain momentum across both programs while managing the financial demands of its newly independent development strategy.
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