While Ukraine and the Middle East are huge human tragedies, neither are greatly economically significant, and they are both already well known to markets. Similarly, the tensions between Taiwan and China are no more elevated now than in the past.
But risks from the nuclear armed triangle of China, India and Pakistan still fly under most investors’ radar. Historical border skirmishes, conflicting religions and cultures (a duo which can often create tension) and competing economies and politics keep tensions simmering.
Pakistan saw its GDP plunge last year, whilst inflation soared 30pc and government debt ballooned. There is also plenty of political uncertainty around incarcerated former prime minister Imran Khan, with his conviction appeal, which could further destabilise Pakistan, pending.
In China, President Xi’s increasingly endless new economic restrictions mean the country’s “miraculous” past growth is finished. Meanwhile, India stews enviously as China favours its regional neighbour Pakistan. China sees initiatives like India’s boost to Himalayan infrastructure as infringing on disputed land.
The odds of war aren’t high, but they aren’t tiny, either. And it could embroil the world’s two most populous states – and its second and fifth largest economies.
