Good morning. Our top story today looks at how a US crackdown on banks financing trade in goods for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made it much more difficult to move money in and out of Russia.
Moscow’s trade volumes with key partners such as Turkey and China have slumped in the first quarter of this year after the US targeted international banks helping Russia acquire critical products to aid its war effort.
A US executive order, implemented late last year, prompted lenders to drop Russian counterparties and avoid transactions in a range of currencies, western officials and senior Russian financiers told the Financial Times.
“It has become harder for Russia to access the financial services that it needs to get these goods,” said Anna Morris, deputy assistant secretary for global affairs at the US Treasury. We have more details on what this means for Putin’s war machine.
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Nordic security: Finland has successfully tested its ability to run a war economy and begun storing military equipment outside its borders as it faces an increasingly aggressive Russia.
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Russian sabotage: European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that Russia is plotting covert bombings, arson attacks and damage to infrastructure across the continent.
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War in Ukraine: Kyiv will look to mount a new counteroffensive in 2025 after a $61bn infusion of US military aid, the US national security adviser has said.
Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:
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Economic data: S&P Global publishes services purchasing managers’ indices for the EU, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
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Xi Jinping in Paris: China’s leader is set to meet his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen amid rising trade tensions before visiting Serbia and Hungary this week.
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Elections: Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno is expected to return to power in Chad’s presidential polls amid signs he is seeking new ties with Russia, while José Raúl Mulino, backed by a popular former president convicted of money laundering, is on track to win Panama’s election.
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May bank holiday: Markets in the UK and Ireland are closed.
Five more top stories
1. Exclusive: The final chief of Credit Suisse is set to leave UBS in the coming weeks as executives work to complete the merger of the former rivals’ legal entities by the end of this month, according to people with knowledge of the plans. Ulrich Körner had hoped to leave earlier but was persuaded to stay until after the legal merger. Owen Walker has the latest.
2. Arab nations have begun to warm to the idea of a multinational peacekeeping force for Gaza and the occupied West Bank. The draft proposals, which have been relayed to the US, are among multiple options being debated as Arab and western states struggle to lay out a path towards regional stability and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Read the full story.
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Al Jazeera: Israel’s far-right government has voted to shut down the Qatari-funded news channel in the country, accusing it of being a “mouthpiece for Hamas” and a national security threat.
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Middle East: US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the White House would not sign a defence pact with Saudi Arabia if the kingdom and Israel did not agree to normalise relations.
3. Exclusive: BP shareholders are preparing for the company to scale back its climate targets further after already cutting them last year. The British energy major is alone among its peers in committing to cut oil and gas production, and many believe that Murray Auchincloss, who took over from Bernard Looney as chief in January, is prepared to be more flexible. Here’s why.
4. Heineken is reopening 62 UK pubs it had closed in recent years and will put about £40mn annually into refurbishing its estate. The move by the world’s second-largest brewer, which owns 2,400 pubs in the UK through its Star Pubs and Bars arm, will restore the number of operating outlets in its estate to pre-pandemic levels. Here’s why it’s making the move.
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UK health: Millions of people are unable to work or are less productive because they are obese, according to a report criticising the government’s “laissez-faire” approach to public health.
5. ArcelorMittal has warned the UK government that one of its main divisions may be forced to leave the country if an application to redevelop a commercial port in south-east England is approved this week. The world’s second-largest steel company said a decision to allow the closure and subsequent redevelopment of a part of Chatham Docks in Kent would have “seismic adverse consequences” for the British economy.
The Big Read
The bill for meeting climate goals will be immense. If average global temperature rises are to be limited in line with the 2015 Paris agreement, climate finance will need to increase to about $9tn a year by 2030, up from just under $1.3tn in 2021-22. But politicians are increasingly worried about piling charges on consumers as prices soar, while others have been chastened by a backlash against green measures and the politicisation of climate change. How will we pay for the green transition’s staggering cost?
We’re also reading . . .
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Divestment: Protests demanding that universities divest from Israel-linked groups should be a wake-up call for institutional investors about the need for transparency, writes Brooke Masters.
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‘Breakdown nations’: Former “model” economies such as Germany and South Africa offer lessons for today’s economic stars about the challenge of sustaining growth, writes Ruchir Sharma.
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Gender pay gap: At current rates of decrease, it will take decades before the earnings disparity in the UK between women and men is eliminated.
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Long Covid: The impact of the condition on health systems and the workforce is still proving difficult to measure four years after the pandemic first emerged.
Chart of the day
The number of new homes being built in England could fall to 160,000 this year, roughly half the official target, unless the government steps up financial and policy support for new housing, according to a forecast from Savills.
Take a break from the news
What can Michelin stars tell us about the world? Janan Ganesh explains what geopolitics and fine dining have in common, and how the west’s relative loss of power is reflected in the restaurant guide.
Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm
