The seven suspicious bets on Trump that have sparked insider trading claims

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“Dozens” of investors placed well-timed and hugely lucrative bets or trades which have raised questions over whether they could be linked to leaks from within the Trump administration, The i Paper understands.

A slew of market wagers placed hours or minutes ahead of important announcements by the US President has provoked growing speculation that leaked information is reaching traders, who are then reaping handsome profits by acting upon it.

The suspicious activity, which centres around seven events ranging from the toppling of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro to the Iran war, is taking place on traditional financial markets and booming online prediction platforms such as Polymarket, which allow gambling on political events.

Shorts

What to know as student dies from meningitis in Berkshire

A student has died and two other young people are being treated following a meningitis outbreak in Reading, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

What has happened?

• The person who died was reportedly a student at Henley College in Oxfordshire.
• The other two cases are pupils at Reading Blue Coat School and Highdown Secondary School and Sixth Form Centre, the UKHSA said.
• Close contacts of those affected are being offered antibiotics as a precaution, the agency added.
• It comes after multiple fatal cases of meningitis B during an outbreak in Kent earlier this year.

NEWS

3 min read

Multiple outbreaks, several strains

The UKHSA said one of the new cases is a different MenB strain from those identified in previous outbreaks in Kent and Dorset.

• March 2026: Two people died following an outbreak of meningitis in Kent, with dozens more people falling ill.
• April 2026: Three young people contracted meningitis in a separate outbreak in a town in Dorset.
• 14 May: Three more cases in young people were reported in Reading, including one death.
• 15 May: UKHSA testing confirms the presence of another MenB strain.

‘Remain vigilant’ and watch for symptoms

• The UKHSA said large outbreaks are “thankfully rare” as “very close contact” is required for infection.
• But it stressed that “anyone can get meningitis”, which is most common in babies and young people.
• The charity Meningitis Now urged people to “remain vigilant” as the disease “can become life-threatening very quickly”.

POLITICS

3 min read

What to look out for

• Symptoms may include a high temperature, severe headache, muscle pain, vomiting and a rash.
• A stiff neck, sensitivity to light, confusion, drowsiness and cold hands and feet are also symptoms.
• Meningitis symptoms can appear in any order and may not all be present, health experts warned.
• Medical advice should therefore be sought if you have any concern, with early diagnosis and treatment viewed as “absolutely vital”.

‘Low’ risk to wider public

Meningococcal disease does not spread easily, and the risk to the wider public remains low.

Dr Rachel Mearkle, consultant in health protection at ukhsa, sought to ease concern among the public

Inside Streeting’s plan B

In the wake of Wes Streeting’s resignation from Cabinet on Thursday, The i Paper has looked into the outgoing health secretary’s bid to unseat Sir Keir Starmer and what it could mean for a Labour leadership contest.

No official challenge tabled… yet

Streeting’s resignation letter issued a devastating critique of the Prime Minister but stopped short of fully challenging Starmer as leader, suggesting the ex-minister may have resorted to a ‘Plan B’.

It has fueled speculation he may yet lack the backing of the 81 MPs required for an official contest and could now be biding his time before bidding for premiership.

OPINION

4 min read

Big Read

5 min read

Waiting for a full field?

Under Labour rules, Streeting can declare he is challenging the Prime Minister without securing the required 81 names and then wait to see if MPs come forward to back him. At that point, once 81 names are submitted, the ballot is triggered.

Streeting’s supporters insist he already has the numbers but wants an open contest with multiple candidates – including Great Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham – so he can have a proper mandate to govern as Prime Minister.

Avoiding a ‘stitch-up’

• A source close to Streeting said his letter’s penultimate paragraph revealed his reason for waiting.
• In it, the former health secretary said he wanted a contest with the “best possible field of candidates”.
• Any leader elected without allowing the best candidates to stand would lack legitimacy, the source said.
• “Wes doesn’t believe in stitch-ups,” they added.

OPINION

4 min read

81 MPs ‘not enough’ for Streeting

It is possible that some of Streeting’s potential supporters include ministers who are still serving in Starmer’s Government.

However, a Labour insider said it would not be enough for Streeting to secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs, and that he would need the support of more than double that figure to show the party he could govern well, without backbench resentment.

POLITICS

7 min read

LIVE

1 min read

HEALTH

Weight-loss drugs can ease migraines and asthma symptoms

Experts said that people using the drugs had reported a reduction in asthma flare-ups and inhaler use.

Another study linked Wegovy to lessened prescriptions for migraine medication among women taking the drugs for weight loss.

More benefits discovered

The new studies, presented to the European Congress on Obesity in Turkey, add to a body of evidence which suggest the drugs have benefits beyond weight loss.

In England, they are already being prescribed to help cut the risk of heart attacks and strokes.

Major benefits

Help for migraines and asthma

7%

The percentage reduction in the use of triptan-class drugs for treatment of migraines one year after starting weight-loss treatment, for women with a history of the illness.

26%

The percentage reduction in the number of asthma exacerbations amongst people prescribed the drugs for obesity or type 2 diabetes.

Reasons behind the results

Dr Kjell Erik Julius Hakansson, one of the authors from Copenhagen University Hospital, said: “There is a high chance that the weight loss is a major contributor to these results.”

He added that as use of the drugs is increasing, “researchers are finding an increasing number of effects outside of weight loss”.

MONEY

3 min read

OPINION

5 min read

ENVIRONMENT NEWS

Where to swim and where to avoid as bathing season begins

Over a dozen new outdoor swim spots in England, including one on the River Thames in London, have been announced by the Government as the official bathing season begins today.

However, people have been advised to avoid swimming at many existing sites found to contain “poor” water quality.

What to know as bathing season begins today

• The official bathing season runs from 15 May until 30 September.
• It sees 464 sites across England’s coasts, rivers and lakes subjected to regular water quality testing.
• They include 13 new swim spots at beaches and rivers.
• One in Ham and Kingston is the first in history to receive the designated status on the River Thames in London.

Save Britain’s Rivers

4 min read

New bathing spots in England

Newton and Noss Creeks in Devon, River Fowey at Lostwithiel in Cornwall, River Dee at Sandy Lane, near Chester, and River Swale in Richmond, Yorkshire, have joined Ham and Kingston’s Thames site among the new official bathing spots in England’s rivers.

Other sites include Little Shore in Northumberland, Sandgate Granville Parade Beach in Kent, East Beach at West Bay in Dorset, Falcon Meadow in Suffolk and Pangbourne Meadow in Berkshire.

Still work to do

Campaigners have warned, however, that hundreds more communities living near rivers are missing out on getting access to bathing spots due to complex rules that exclude the areas most polluted by sewage.

Meanwhile, signs warning people not to swim due to potentially unsafe water conditions have been found at 12 of England’s existing 14 inland river locations.

Save Britain’s Rivers

5 min read

Exclusive

2 min read

Existing inland river sites with ‘poor’ water quality

• River Wharfe at Ilkley and Wetherby; River Ribble at Clitheroe; and River Nidd at Knaresborough.
• River Severn at Ironbridge and Shrewsbury; River Teme at Ludlow; and River Cam at Cambrige.
• Wolvercote Mill Stream at Oxford and River Frome at Farleigh Hungerford.
• River Tone at French Weir Park and River Avon at Fordingbridge.

Who broke Britain?

6 min read

HEALTH NEWS

Lesser-known hacks to lower blood pressure

Clare Wilson

Science Writer

As part of its May Measurement Month campaign, the British Heart Foundation has released a check list of eight steps for lowering blood pressure – some of which may be less well known.

Worthwhile lifestyle changes

High blood pressure is the single biggest modifiable risk factor for poor health in developed countries like the UK. It can lead to heart attacks, strokes and several other conditions, yet may go unnoticed for years.

A reluctance to start taking medicine may put people off getting their blood pressure checked, but several lifestyle changes might mean you don’t need medication.

LIFESTYLE

4 min read

Analysis

3 min read

The BHF checklist

• 1The BHF’s first point is to check your blood pressure regularly.
• 2Regular exercise is another key point on the charity’s checklist.
• 3Moderating your drinking, meanwhile, is a third important step in blood pressure control.
• 4Five daily portions of fruit and veg, especially nitrate-rich options like beetroot, also helps. 

BHF checklist (continued)

• 5Cutting down on salt is important and can be helped by consuming foods high in potassium. 
• 6Consuming lower-fat dairy can help in various ways, too, due to calcium and certain peptides.
• 7Weight management, including with weight-loss drugs, may also prove effective, studies suggest.
• 8Lastly, if you have been prescribed medication, it is important to take it.

LABEL – CATEGORY

British Gas pays out over prepayment scandal

British Gas agreed to pay £20m in compensation following an investigation into the force fitting of prepayment meters. Here’s what you need to know.

Prepayment scandal

SMALL TITLE

Families pushed into debt

An investigation by The i Paper revealed suppliers were forcing customers who fell behind on their bills to install prepayment meters in their homes against their will.

NEWS

3 min read

Prepayment meter ban

A ban soon followed which stopped the fitting of prepayment meters on elderly people or families with small children.

British Gas has now agreed to £20m in compensation and will also write off up to £70m of of vulnerable customers’ energy debt. It is estimated that 40,000 customers had a prepayment meter installed without permission between 2022 and 2023.

‘Truly shocking’ scandal

“The forthcoming Energy Independence Bill must include provisions to end the forced installation of pre-payment meters and fundamentally reform the warrant process. This scandal must never happen again.”

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition

Never to happen again

“What happened should never have happened.”

The boss of British Gas owner Centrica, apologised and out in safeguards to make sure the practice never happens again.

Ofgem boss Tim Jarvis said the company had fallen short in “its treatment of an unacceptable number of vulnerable customers who had a prepayment meter installed without consent”.

POLITICS

How Burnham as PM may affect tax, welfare and immigration

Eleanor Langford

Political Reporter

There are reports that Andy Burnham is poised to attempt a dramatic comeback to Westminster.

His record in government, mayoralty in Manchester, and a string of disagreements with Downing Street give a clearer picture of what his premiership might look like.

Can he make a bid for PM?

A path to parliament

Burnham’s allies claimed he found a Labour MP ready to stand aside so he could return to parliament.

Previous hurdles

He cannot stand in a leadership contest without a seat. He was blocked from securing one in January.

Tension is rising

But with over 90 MPs calling on Starmer to go, pressure on the Prime Minister is growing.

Welfare spending and the NHS

Burnham has been among the most vocal Labour figures to oppose the Government’s welfare cuts. He is unlikely to continue the scale of cuts to welfare spending currently being pursued.

Burnham was health secretary under Gordon Brown between 2009 and 2010. His core argument is that the NHS and social care must be fully integrated into a single publicly run system, free at the point of use – what he calls a National Care Service.

What about tax and the economy?

• Burnham has consistently argued that Britain taxes work too heavily and wealth too lightly.
• He proposes a revaluation of council tax bands, land value taxation reform and replacing inheritance tax with a “care levy” to fund a National Care Service.
• He caused turbulence when, in 2025, he said politicians needed to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets”.

Analysis

5 min read

Immigration and foreign policy

Burnham has criticised the Government’s hardline stance on immigration, suggesting he would be less aggressive in pursuing lower net migration figures.

In foreign policy, he was one of the first senior Labour figures to call for a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, and urged the Government to recognise Palestinian statehood in 2025.

He also said he hoped to see the UK rejoin the EU.

Exclusive

5 min read

Exclusive

3 min read

Watch more from The i Paper

@theipaper

“Andy Burnham’s allies have been offering peerages to MPs willing to stand aside so he can return to Westminster, The i Paper has been told. Multiple sources claim the Mayor of Manchester’s allies have been making moves to position him for any leadership challenge which may come after the local elections. The results are likely to pile further pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, who has long known that these elections could be make or break for his premiership.” #Westminster #Parliament #KeirStarmer

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SPORT

Fifa is risking player safety in heat at World Cup, scientists say

World-leading scientists have said Fifa’s current heat safety measures for the 2026 World Cup are “inadequate” and could risk serious harm for players.

Dangerous temperatures expected

International experts in health, climate and sports performance have called on Fifa to introduce stronger measures.

Heat is expected to be an issue at the tournament in the US, Canada and Mexico. Researchers said temperatures at 14 of the 16 stadiums in use could exceed dangerous levels.

FOOTBALL

3 min read

Current measures

• Fifa has introduced compulsory three-minute cooling breaks in each half of all matches.
• There will be climate-controlled benches for technical staff and substitutes at all outdoor matches.
• Fifa uses the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) as a heat measure, which assess heat stress on the body.
• If the WBGT is near, at or above 32°C, match organisers will agree precautions to prevent harm.

Interview

4 min read

What needs changing?

An open letter has been signed by 20 experts, including leading academics from the UK, USA, Canada, Australia and Europe.

They want Fifa to change its approach, including:

• Delaying or postponing matches above 28°C WBGT.
• Longer cooling breaks of at least six minutes.
• Improved cooling facilities for players.
• Regular updates to guidelines based on the latest science.

Things can go wrong quickly

Player safety is an immediate and urgent concern because things can go wrong very quickly when people overheat. We’re worried that Fifa is playing recklessly with the health and safety of players.

andrew simms, director of the new weather institute

It emerged this week that a US watchdog – the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – is investigating a series of oil trades, reportedly worth as much as $1.6bn (£1.2bn), placed in recent weeks shortly before Donald Trump announced two important developments in the Iran war.

Financial sources told The i Paper that since the start of the Iran campaign “dozens” of individuals or entities have placed conspicuously well-timed bets which have preceded shifts in White House policy in the Middle East.

Unerringly accurate trades

Analysts have said the unerring accuracy of these trades, bears the hallmark of illegal insider trading. It is a criminal offence in America for anyone, including government officials, to use privileged information to gain an advantage on the financial markets.

According to one analysis, oil futures – in effect a gamble on whether the price of oil will fall or rise – worth $950m (£700m) were bought on 7 April less than three hours before Trump resiled from his threat to “destroy a whole civilisation” and announced a ten-day ceasefire with Iran.

Similarly, oil bets worth $580m (£430m) were placed on 23 March just 15 minutes before the US leader posted on his Truth Social platform that Washington was talking to Tehran about a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION TO HOSTILITIES”.

In both cases, the President’s announcements caused sharp falls in the oil price of up to 25 per cent, allowing traders who had “shorted” the market by betting on a drop to make large profits. One single trade placed on 23 March is understood to have made a profit of $20m (£14.8m).

Others point out, however, that well-timed market bets do not necessarily indicate illegality, with some investors having become skilled at predicting presidential interventions and others learning to follow the moves of traders with successful track records.

Two senior brokers in the UK and US with knowledge of some of the trades said the transactions were being made by more than a handful of market participants.

One told The i Paper: “We are talking about dozens of traders making transactions which fit timeframes of being made minutes before an announcement by Trump.”

Separate CFTC trading data suggests that since the start of the Iran war, daily volumes of trades in Brent crude oil have doubled from 300,000 per day and have at times reached one million.

Prediction market predicted to hit $325bn

The trend in uncannily precise wagers is even more stark on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and its rival Kalshi. Both companies are part of a wider boom in online betting on a multitude of non-traditional sectors – from the weather to politics – which last year grew four-fold to $44bn (£32.6bn) in trading volume and is expected to this year exceed $325bn (£240.8bn).

On 28 February, six accounts set up on Polymarket that month collected $1.2m between them after correctly betting on US strikes on Iran by that date. One account won $553,000 by also predicting the death of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Seven events raising insider trading suspicions

9 April, 2025 – Trump announced a 90-day pause in his planned tariffs on goods from around the globe. He made the announcement at 6.18pm (BST). Eighteen minutes earlier, traders began betting on the stock market going up and by 6.19pm the US’s S&P 500 index had soared by 9.5 per cent.

3 January, 2026 – Venezuela’s then-president, Nicolás Maduro, was seized in an overnight military operation by US Special Forces. Days earlier, one user on Polymarket placed a $32,500 bet on Maduro being out of office by the end of January. They made $436,000 after his capture.

27 February, 2026 – Around 150 accounts on Polymarket placed bets that the US would strike Iran the following day. On 28 February, the US and Israel began air strikes on Iran. Analysis by The New York Times estimated the bets made $855,000 in total.

27 February, 2026 – A single Polymarket account made some $553,000 by betting on the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, in the first night of the US-Israeli strikes.

9 March, 2026 – Trading in oil futures spikes at 6.29pm (GMT). At 7.18pm CBS New broadcasts an interview with Trump in which he declares the war with Iran to be “pretty much complete”. At 7.18pm the markets react with a 25 per cent drop in the price of oil

23 March, 2026 – Trump posted on Truth Social at 11.04am (GMT) the US had “productive conversations” with Iran about a “total resolution” of hostilities. From 10.48, oil trades had begun to spike with a total of $580m laid in market wagers. A minute after the post by Trump the price of Brent crude oil had dropped by 11 per cent.

7 April, 2026 – Traders placed large, unusual bets totalling $950m on the price of oil falling, according to Reuters, just hours ahead of the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire. On Polymarket, 50 accounts placed similar wagers.

On Friday, the US authorities announced the arrest of a US Special Forces soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who is accused of placing bets on the removal of Maduro on 3 January after creating a Polymarket account last December. The soldier, who was involved in the operation to detain the Venezuelan leader, won $409,000 from allegedly illegal bets based on his knowledge of the swoop by US forces. It is not clear if Van Dyke is the same Polymarket user previously reported to have won $436,000 with similar bets.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have insisted they do not tolerate insider or informed trading. Polymarket said earlier this month that it prohibits any bets based on “stolen confidential information” and individuals who “hold a position of authority or influence” from placing relevant wagers.

Donald Trump Jr, the President’s son, is an adviser to Kalshi and Polymarket, which conducts the vast majority of its business on a platform hosted outside the US. However, there is no evidence suggesting the US leader or any of his family have benefited from any of these transactions.

‘It cannot be a coincidence’

Professor Richard Portes, a leading economist at the London Business School, said that while there is as yet no direct evidence of insider trading, there is a growing dossier to suggest the choreography of lucrative trade or bets made shortly before market-moving announcements from within the US government is more than coincidence.

He said: “You just don’t see market moves like that immediately before a major item of information is publicly released without having to conclude that somebody knew.”

Per Friberg, senior financial crime surveillance officer at Trapets, a company which provides expertise on detecting anomalies in markets, said recent events are “clearly suspicious”.

He said: “The pattern looks more like potential informed trading than random coincidence. From a surveillance perspective, the red flags are the same: concentrated positioning, timely trades, and immediate profitability after a material announcement.”

On 24 March, the White House sent an email to all staff warning them not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets. It has also firmly denied any wrongdoing by administration officials.

‘If one trade looks suspicious, it does not mean others are’

Experts point out, however, that when it comes to American law enforcement at least, proving offences of insider trading has been challenging. The use of privileged information for financial gain by US government officials was made illegal in 2012, but to date there has not been a single prosecution.

Several people involved with enforcement against market abuse underlined that even when a trader is identified, proving that transactions were based on non-public information is notoriously difficult.

One source said: “There is a level of automation and sophistication in trading now which means that one market mover can be followed instantaneously by others. Even if one trade looks suspicious, it does not mean others are and differentiating one from the other can be extremely difficult.”

Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University, who last month published a study which identified “anomalous characteristics” in prediction market trades which netted around $134m, said: “Given the difficulties involved in prosecuting this activity, it is unlikely to be punished or deterred in the short term.”

Indeed, there is a growing realisation that a world of cryptocurrencies, blockchains and under-regulated markets has rapidly expanded the ability to profit from privileged information with minimal risk of discovery.

As Friberg put it: “The underlying misconduct is not new. What is new is the range of products to trade. The regulatory framework has not kept pace with the reality of prediction markets, which creates an opportunity for abuse.”