Looking back at the U.K.’s first post-Brexit trade deals, David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy think tank, says there is little sign of material impact.
“There is currently no evidence that the new trade deals with Australia and New Zealand have affected the U.K. economy in any meaningful sense,” he said, adding there was “nothing that indicates any permanent increase in trade so far.”
‘Beating the forecasts’
As the budget approaches, Reeves’ growth ambitions look increasingly uncertain.
The OBR has downgraded the U.K.’s productivity outlook, potentially increasing government borrowing by £14 billion and £20 billion. Just last week, figures from the Office for National Statistics show that U.K. GDP fell unexpectedly by 0.1 percent in September.
Publicly, at least, the chancellor has remained upbeat.
“My job as chancellor is to try and beat those forecasts,” she said last month, “and what we’re doing with those trade deals with India, the U.S. and the EU, the investments that we’ve secured, including from big tech companies in the U.K., shows that we have a huge amount to offer as a place to grow a business, to start and scale a business.
“We’ll continue to secure those investments in all parts of Britain, to create those good jobs, paying wages and to boost our productivity, which means that we will start to see those numbers coming through in economic growth and prosperity for working people.”
James Fitzgerald contributed to this report.
